Germania, UE, Rusia

Germania, UE, Rusia

by August 2, 2010 27 comments

 Vasile Gheorghiu Nu cu mult timp in urma, Der Spiegel, prin mana jurnalistului Benjamin Bidder care intamplator sau nu semneaza de la Moscova, titreaza: “România ajuta moldovenii sa intre în UE „pe usa din spate”. Oare chiar asa sa fie ? Mai curios decat articolul pare zelul unor jurnalisti ce provin dintr-o tara ce a suferit experienta dezbinarii nationale, o tara care detine un loc fruntas in acordarea cetateniilor devansand net Romania la acest capitol. Cum se explica atunci rapiditatea cu care s-a sters atat de repede orice urma de empatie fata de un popor care inca traieste trauma unei istorii recente prin care a trecut si ea ?

Evolutiile recente ale Europei, in general, si ale Germaniei in particular suprapuse unor doctrine mai vechi ne ofera totusi niste indicii in acest sens. Dificultatile si testele proiectului european nu mai reprezinta astazi un secret pentru nimeni. Insa in urma acestor dificultati, profilul tot mai individualizat al Germaniei nu poate sa scape observatiei de bun simt. Sa aruncam o privire la cadrul politic si geopolitic al Europei unite.

Desi cavalcada extinderii europene pare ca s-a temperat, se pare totusi ca aceasta “oboseala” isi are radacinile in insasi proiectul intelectualist care a dat nastere uniunii. Proiectul vizionar al Europei unite pare a fi compromis tocmai de lipsa de viziune a birocratilor de la Bruxelles. Europa nu poate raspunde rapid si eficient provocarilor interne si externe iar tarile dezvoltate ale uniunii par sa tolereze tot mai greu aceasta situatie. In acest context, se face resimtita o acuta nevoie de reconfigurare a structurilor europene care sa repuna pe sine proiectul european ca unul functional si de viitor. O reconfigurare prin care tarilor puternice ale uniunii sa li se atribuie un rol mai important. Aspectul socialist al Uniunii nu pare a mai fi dorit de tari precum Germania sau Marea Britanie tari din ce in ce mai dornice de a deveni jucatori activi, folosindu-se abil de vacuumul functional al Bruxelles-ului. Simplu spus, Germania nu mai este multumita cu statutul de simplu membru al Uniunii ea dorindu-si, statutul de lider in cadrul UE, statut care astazi pare sa se contureze tot mai clar, cel putin la nivel informal. Acest fenomen nu este deloc unul nou si nu intamplator Karl Haushofer, intemeietorul stiintei geopolitice, cel care a teoretizat problema frontierelor politice, a spatiului vital (Lebensraum) si a germanitudinii (Deutschtum), in urma cu multa vreme a intuit in mod exceptional cursul viitoarei arhitecturi politice europene in care statele aveau sa-si piarda treptat rolul pentru a face loc unui viitor organism regional in care Germania trebuia sa devina noua locomotiva economica dar mai ales politica a Europei. Viziunea geopolitica a lui Haushofer era perfect plauzibila atunci si numai cursul abrupt si imprevizibil al evenimentelor ce s-au succedat dupa accederea la putere a Partidului National Socialist ce au culminat cu cea de-a doua conflagratie mondiala a facut ca ea sa nu se materializeze. Sau cel putin, sa fie intarziata. Astazi insa, ea devine din nou posibila.

Tonul aproape singular, paternalist si ferm al Germaniei vizavi de “verigile slabe” ale zonei euro, girul dat relansarii negocierilor pe marginea chestiunii transnistrene si mai ale intensificarea fara precedent a relatiilor ruso-germane reprezinta doar cateva din recentele actiuni ale Germaniei ce vin sa ne confirmae intentiile acesteia de a deveni, prin proprie vointa, “portavocea” intereselor europene in est, interese vazute evident in cheie germana. Dar, asa cum in urma cu un secol Haushofer visa pragmatic la extinderea influentei germane asupra Europei, Germania de azi nu face altceva decat sa se re-inscrie pe o traiectorie a politicii externe care in trecut i-a adus mari prejudicii: extinderea spre est. Diferenta este ca astazi o face intr-un mod pragmatic si cu mijloace adecvate timpului nostru. Dar cum sunt intampinate toate aceste de catre estul vizat de ambitiile geopolitice germane? Iarasi, nu constituie un secret intentia declarata a Kremlinului de modernizare a Rusiei, iar dupa vizita in Statele Unite in care presedintele Medvedev nu s-a ales decat cu un cont nou pe Twitter, cautarea unui partener pentru atingerea acestui scop pare sa-si fi gasit deja un raspuns. Suntem martorii unui troc geopolitic pus in scena prin mijloace economice. Deocamdata. Germania este constienta ca nu poate sa mai creasca fara resursele Rusiei iar Rusia stie ca nu are ce face cu aceste resurse fara tehnologiile vestului. De aici, declaratiile pline de entuziasm si emfaza ale Angelei Merkel, primite calduros de partea rusa in care se afirma ca relatiile germano-ruse nu au atins niciodata intensitatea de astazi. Declaratiile Germaniei trebuie luate foarte in serios pentru odata cu ele, mai putin vizibil, la Ecateringurg a sosit si jumatate din cabinetul Merkel angajat serios in discutii consistente cu noii parteneri, discutii ce au menirea de a forja un parteneriat germano-rus din ce in ce mai solid.

Care ar putea fi limitele acestui parteneriat ? Revenind la contextul european vedem un joc de sah in care Germania muta de mai multe ori pe tabla europeana in timp ce ceilalti europeni privesc inca buimaciti si se intreaba daca Germania a mutat si pentru ei sau nu, sau daca mutarile deja facute de aceasta ii avantajeaza sau nu. Peste ocean, SUA privesc cu scepticism si neliniste nasterea noii prietenii care la prima vedere nu-i avantajeaza nici pe ei si probabil ca incearca sa-si calculeze propriile mutari pe tabla europeana. Curand, vom vedea si care anume vor fi acelea. Pentru Romania acestea ar trebui sa fie semnalul unor pregatiri mult mai temeinice a temelor diplomatice pentru un viitor lobby berlinez concertat cu o prezenta europeana mult mai vizibila si chiar jucarea unei carti americane pentru ca altfel nu-i va ramane decat sa astepte impasibila noi si noi articole berlineze, semnate de la Moscova.

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